Can Protecting Nature Also Protect People? Lessons from Ethiopia’s Conservation Dilemma

Nguyen Thi Hong Hoa

Ho Chi Minh College of Economics and Technology

16-05-2026

© Wix

Around the world, biodiversity is declining at an alarming pace. To address this crisis, 196 countries adopted the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022, committing to protect 30% of Earth’s land, inland waters, and coastal and marine areas by 2030—an ambitious target often known as “30-by-30.” The goal extends beyond simply drawing more green boundaries on maps. Protected areas are also expected to be ecologically representative, well-connected, effectively managed, and governed fairly. Yet these broader dimensions often receive far less attention than the percentage of land protected.

Historically, protected areas have frequently been established in places with relatively low economic value—areas where creating reserves generates fewer political and financial conflicts. While this strategy may increase protected land coverage efficiently, it often fails to safeguard the ecosystems most critical for biodiversity conservation. Many ecologically important regions remain underrepresented, and expanding protection into these areas may increasingly compete with agriculture, livelihoods, and local food systems (Oldekop, 2016; Schleicher et al., 2019; Rakotonarivo et al., 2025).

Ethiopia illustrates this challenge particularly well. The country contains two global biodiversity hotspots and has committed to achieving international conservation targets. Yet Ethiopia also faces substantial poverty and food security challenges (Bersisa & Heshmati, 2021). In 2020, around 18 million people lived within ten kilometers of protected areas, making interactions between conservation and human wellbeing unavoidable (Kumssa & Bekele, 2014; Gulte et al., 2023).

To understand these complexities, Jago and colleagues recently conducted a comprehensive assessment of Ethiopia’s progress toward the 30-by-30 target. Their findings reveal a nuanced reality. Ethiopia’s protected areas have performed remarkably well in several ecological dimensions. They successfully reduce environmental degradation, limit land-use change, and protect species and ecosystem representation despite severe resource limitations (Jago et al., 2026).

However, these environmental gains come with important social trade-offs. Communities living near protected areas often experienced worse changes in food security and material wellbeing compared with similar communities outside protected areas. Only a small subset of protected areas generated true “win–win” outcomes in which both conservation and local wellbeing improved simultaneously. These successful cases often occurred where local livelihoods naturally aligned with conservation activities.

The challenge may become even greater in the future. Ethiopia’s population is projected to nearly double from approximately 119 million in 2020 to 225 million by 2050. Meeting the 30-by-30 target would require more than tripling the country’s current protected area network. Many underrepresented ecosystems targeted for future expansion also overlap with highly productive agricultural regions or areas already experiencing food insecurity. Expanding protected areas without careful planning may therefore intensify conflicts over land and livelihoods (Allendorf, 2022).

Conservation outcomes emerge not from isolated decisions but from interactions among multiple value systems operating across ecological, social, economic, and institutional levels (Vuong, 2025; Nguyen & Ho, 2026). Biodiversity, food security, local livelihoods, and development priorities are not separate entities competing independently; they form interconnected processing systems where changes in one component inevitably reshape others. Protecting forests may preserve ecological value, but if surrounding communities experience declining well-being, tensions may emerge that eventually undermine conservation itself.

The Ethiopian case suggests that the future of conservation may not simply involve protecting more land, but understanding how different forms of value interact (Khuc & Nguyen, 2026). Conservation is not merely about preserving nature from people—it may increasingly depend on designing systems in which human well-being and ecological resilience harmoniously reinforce one another rather than compete (Vuong, 2025).

References

Allendorf, T. D. (2022). A global summary of local residents’ perceptions of benefits and problems of protected areas. Biodiversity Conservation, 31, 379–396. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-022-02359-z

Bersisa, M. & Heshmati, A. A distributional analysis of uni-and multidimensional poverty and inequalities in Ethiopia. Social Indicators Research, 155, 805–835. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02606-w

Gulte, E., et al. (2023). Perception of local communities on protected areas: lessons drawn from the Bale Mountains National Park, Ethiopia. Ecosystems and People, 19, 2227282. https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2023.2227282

Jago, S., et al. (2026). Trade-offs between nature and people in Ethiopia’s protected areas demonstrate challenges in translating global conservation targets into national realities. Nature Ecology & Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03047-9

Khuc, V. Q. & Nguyen, M. H. (2026). Cultural Additivity Theory. https://books.google.com/books?id=Y4XZEQAAQBAJ

Kumssa, T. & Bekele, A. (2014). Attitude and perceptions of local residents toward the protected area of Abijata-Shalla Lakes National Park (ASLNP), Ethiopia. Journal of Ecosystem & Ecography, 4, 1000138. https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7625.1000138

Nguyen, M. H., & Ho, M. T. (2026). The absurdist approach to unveiling possible paradoxical thinking for innovative socio-psychological research. MethodsX, 16, 103910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2026.103910

Oldekop, J. A., et al. (2016). A global assessment of the social and conservation outcomes of protected areas. Conservation Biology, 30, 133–141. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12568

Rakotonarivo, O. S., et al. (2025). Conservation practice must catch up with commitments to local people for 30 × 30 success. Nature Reviews Biodiversity,1, 84–85. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44358-025-00021-4

Schleicher, J. et al. (2019). Protecting half of the planet could directly affect over one billion people. Nature Sustainability, 2, 1094–1096. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0423-y

Vuong, Q. H. (2025). Wild Wise Weird. AISDL. https://books.google.com/books?id=C5dDEQAAQBAJ