When Wars Undo Progress: How Armed Conflicts Set Back the World’s Sustainable Development Goals

Papuan Sittella

10-05-2025

The usual territorial dispute over feeding grounds between the Green Shrimp and the Yellow Shrimp. In truth, they all belong to the same linage; their colors differ only because they have adapted to different environments in the struggle for survival.

In “Ultimate Compassion”; Wild Wise Weird (2024)

© Wix

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to eradicate poverty, ensure equality, and protect the planet by 2030. Yet, a recent global study by Wang et al. [1] reveals that armed conflicts have significantly delayed this progress, pushing humanity’s collective development back by about 18 years.

Using data from 166 countries between 2000 and 2021, the researchers applied advanced causal inference and machine learning models to examine how warfare shapes progress toward the SDGs. Their findings are striking. Overall, armed conflict reduced global SDG performance by 3.43%, with the Middle East suffering the greatest setback (6.10%), followed by South Asia (5.01%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (1.99%). These declines translate into slower improvements in health, education, infrastructure, and environmental protection across entire regions [2,3].

Different types of conflicts inflict distinct damages. Interstate conflicts mainly harm gender equality (SDG 5) and access to clean energy (SDG 7), while intrastate conflicts most severely impact education (SDG 4) and infrastructure (SDG 9). The ecological toll is especially grave—SDG 15 (Life on Land) deteriorates under both forms of conflict, with effects persisting for years. As the number of conflicts rises, sustainable development regresses non-linearly, meaning that each additional war magnifies damage exponentially.

At a deeper level, this study exposes how violence fractures the nature–human nexus[4]. Wars destroy not only cities and societies but also ecosystems, erasing forests, polluting rivers, and accelerating climate vulnerability [5,6]. Such disruptions reflect a breakdown in humanity’s Nature Quotient (NQ)—our capacity to coexist with, learn from, and protect natural systems [7]. Low NQ societies, driven by domination and extraction, tend to perpetuate violence both against people and the planet.

By contrast, cultivating high NQ—through empathy, ecological education, and sustainable governance—can restore both environmental and social harmony. The study thus underscores that peace is inseparable from ecological balance: protecting nature is a path to protecting peace itself. Integrating peacebuilding with environmental restoration and SDG implementation could help societies escape cycles of conflict and deprivation [8].

References

[1] Wang D, et al. (2025). Exploring the role of armed conflict in progress toward Sustainable Development Goals: Global patterns, regional differences, and driving mechanisms. Geography and Sustainability, 6(6), 100355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100355

[2] Gates S, et al. (2012). Development consequences of armed conflict. World Development, 40(9), 1713-1722. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.031

[3] Le TH, Bui MT, Uddin GS. (2022). Economic and social impacts of conflict: a cross-country analysis. Economic Modelling, 115, 105980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105980

[4] Nguyen MH. (2024). How can satirical fables offer us a vision for sustainability? Visions for Sustainability, 23(11267), 323-328. https://doi.org/10.13135/2384-8677/11267

[5] Yi J. (2019). Rethinking the resource curse thesis in fragile and conflict-affected contexts: analysis of the patterns and relative conditions of diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa (2001-16). Journal of Regional Studies and Development, 28(2), 161-193.

[6] Ujunwa A, et al. (2021). Potential impact of climate change and armed conflict on inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 89(4), 480-498. https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12271

[7] Vuong QH, Nguyen MH. (2025). On Nature Quotient. Pacific Conservation Biology, 31, PC25028. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC25028

[8] Nguyen MH, Ho MT, La VP. (2025). On “An” (安): Inner peace through uncertainty, nature quotient, and harmony with Dao. http://books.google.com/books/about?id=NIKMEQAAQBAJ