Shifting Baselines in a Changing Ocean: Rethinking Fisheries for the Future

Anambra Waxbill

19-10-2025

As if recalling something, Zhuangzi says, “This morning I heard the birds in the Bird Village said that the last storm had swept away all the Flowerpeckers’ nests. They have no home now. Do you still want them to finish weaving your burrow’s rain-proof screen?”
Hearing Zhuangzi, Kingfisher sighs and closes his eyes as if meditating. Kingfisher suddenly realizes the wonder of Dao, of wu wei (無為).

In Kingfisherish Wandering [1]

© Wix

Our oceans are changing faster than at any point in human memory, making it increasingly dangerous to base fisheries decisions on the historical experience [2,3]. In a recent study, Pinsky & Smith [4] argue that traditional baselines—built on historical averages and experience—are no longer reliable for managing marine ecosystems under climate change. Instead, they call for a new system of dynamic ecological baselines that evolve alongside the ocean itself.

There is a critical mismatch between decision-making timescales and available ocean forecasts. While some choices, like avoiding harmful algal blooms, require forecasts hours or days ahead, others—such as fisheries regulations, aquaculture planning, or marine protected area design—need reliable information over years or decades. However, a “predictability gap” exists at intermediate timescales (multi-annual to multi-decadal), where forecasts are scarce or uncertain. By incorporating biological processes such as fish growth, reproduction, and migration into climate models, scientists can extend predictability further into the future.

Crucially, human and social factors—from economic incentives and cultural values to inequities in data access—shape how forecasts are used. Improved forecasts are only useful if communities trust and understand them. Thus, co-production of ecological forecasts with fishers, policymakers, and coastal communities is vital for ensuring equitable and adaptive decision-making [5,6].

By integrating biology, climate science, and social dynamics, Pinsky and Smith [4] propose a new framework for ecological forecasting that spans “from hours to decades.” This approach could help societies prepare for shifting species distributions, avoid economic shocks, and sustain ocean life under accelerating change.

This paradigm shift embodies the principle of Nature Quotient—the human ability to sense and align with the rhythms of the natural world [7]. Recognizing the ocean as a living, dynamic system fosters humility and foresight, essential components of both individual peace (through deeper ecological awareness) and social peace (through fair and cooperative management of shared resources) [8]. Adapting to shifting baselines thus represents not only a scientific challenge but a moral invitation to live harmoniously within Earth’s changing systems.

References

[1] Nguyen MH. (2025). Kingfisherish Wandering. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FVLLLXNW/

[2] Link JS, et al. (2023). Why we need weather forecast analogues for marine ecosystems. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 80(8), 2087-2098. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad143

[3] Pershing AJ, et al. (2019). Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures. PNAS, 116(37), 18378-18383. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1901084116

[4] Pinsky ML, Smith SL. (2025). The need for shifting baselines to guide fisheries and ocean activities from days to decades. Fish and Fisheries. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70029

[5] Hobday AJ, et al. (2019). Ethical considerations and unanticipated consequences associated with ecological forecasting for marine resources. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 76(5), 1244-1256. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy210

[6] Bednarek AT, et al. (2018). Boundary spanning at the science–policy interface: The practitioners' perspectives. Sustainability Science, 13, 1175-1183.

[7] Vuong QH, Nguyen MH. (2025). On Nature Quotient. Pacific Conservation Biology, 31, PC25028. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC25028

[8] Nguyen MH, Ho MT, La VP. (2025). On “An” (安): Inner peace through uncertainty, nature quotient, and harmony with Dao. http://books.google.com/books/about?id=NIKMEQAAQBAJ