Policy over the Tide: How Human Decisions Shape China’s Coastal Flood Risks More than Rising Seas

Horned Lark

14-10-2025

“Wild is not chaos. Wild is rhythm unmeasured.”

In Kingfisherish Wandering [1]

© Kristin Hoel

In a study on Nature Climate Change, Wang et al. [2] reveal that development policy—not just climate change—will largely determine China’s coastal flood exposure by 2100. Using high-resolution simulations that combine sea-level rise (SLR), land subsidence, tides, and storm surges, the study demonstrates that what gets flooded in the future depends more on how China develops its coastlines than on how much sea levels rise.

The researchers analyzed 114 national and provincial coastal plans to build five future policy scenarios: economic growth (ECON), ecological protection (ECOL), and a middle-road (MID) path, each with varying intensity. They then modeled land-use and population changes alongside different SLR projections. Under all climate scenarios, policy pathways had greater influence than SLR magnitude on determining which land systems—urban, industrial, agricultural, or ecological—are exposed to floods.

In aggressive economic growth scenarios, the extent of high-risk urban and industrial zones rises sharply, while ecological protection reduces exposure but at the cost of restricting development. By 2100, population and GDP exposure could nearly double under ECON-high conditions compared to ECOL-low, even when sea-level scenarios remain constant. The study also highlights the compounding roles of land subsidence and extreme events. Subsidence alone can increase inundation areas more than 14 times compared to SLR alone.

Wang and colleagues argue that coastal flood risk is a policy problem as much as a climate one. Local and national governments have strong agency to mitigate exposure through ecosystem-based approaches, zoning, subsidence control, and adaptive planning, rather than relying solely on engineering defenses [3-5]. They also warn against “the levee effect,” where heavy reliance on flood barriers encourages more risky development behind them, potentially amplifying disaster impacts when defenses fail [6].

Viewing flood risk with high NQ encourages policies rooted in ecological humility rather than technological dominance. Higher NQ means designing coastal systems that breathe with nature—allowing space for wetlands, mangroves, and managed retreat—to sustain both ecosystems and human safety [7].

In this sense, individual and social peace emerge from recognizing that resilience is relational. When societies harmonize human ambition with Earth’s rhythms, they reduce conflict with both nature and themselves [8]. China’s future coasts will be shaped not only by rising tides but by rising awareness.

References

[1] Nguyen MH. (2025). Kingfisherish Wandering. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FVLLLXNW/

[2] Wang Y, et al. (2025). Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change, 15, 1071-1077. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2

[3] Fang J, et al. (2022). Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China. Nature Communications, 13, 6946. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34525-w

[4] Pillai UPA, et al. (2022). A digital twin modelling framework for the assessment of seagrass nature based solutions against storm surges. Science of The Total Environment, 847, 157603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157603

[5] Fan J, et al. (2019). Reshaping the sustainable geographical pattern: a major function zoning model and its applications in China. Earth’s Future, 7, 25-42. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001077

[6] Hino M, Fiel CB, Mach KJ. (2017). Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk. Nature Climate Change, 7, 364-370. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3252

[7] Vuong QH, Nguyen MH. (2025). On Nature Quotient. Pacific Conservation Biology, 31, PC25028. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC25028

[8] Nguyen MH, Ho MT, La VP. (2025). On “An” (安): Inner peace through uncertainty, nature quotient, and harmony with Dao. http://books.google.com/books/about?id=NIKMEQAAQBAJ