Aviation’s Climate Burden: Why Planes Keep Warming the Planet

Steel-Blue whydah

21-09-2025

– Steel birds are also birds. Our kind of birds could withstand rain but would get burnt by fire. From my observation, I noticed the steel birds you mentioned are fired up in the back. Let me ask you, if you get lit up with fire in your tail, would you fly fast or slow?

In “Philosopher Bird”; Wild Wise Weird (2024)

© Wix

Air travel has transformed how people and goods move across the world. But behind the convenience lies a climate problem. A new study shows that even under the most ambitious mitigation plans, aviation will continue to warm the planet throughout this century [1].

Using an advanced climate model, researchers assessed both carbon dioxide (CO₂) and non-CO₂ emissions—such as nitrogen oxides, water vapor, black carbon, and the heat-trapping clouds known as contrail-cirrus. Their findings are sobering. By 2070, aviation-induced warming is projected to roughly double compared to today, even if fossil jet fuel is phased out by 2040 and sustainable aviation fuels dominate the skies. Non-CO₂ emissions, which account for nearly three-quarters of aviation’s warming effect, remain the biggest challenge because they cannot be fully eliminated by simply switching fuels [1].

This matters for global climate goals. The Paris Agreement calls for keeping warming below 1.5–2°C, but international aviation is not explicitly covered within its framework [2]. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set long-term aspirational goals, yet current strategies mainly address CO₂, leaving non-CO₂ impacts largely unregulated [3]. Without holistic measures—including managing contrails and demand-side interventions—aviation’s share of global warming could rise to 5-8% by 2070 [1].

The implications go beyond technical policy debates. Aviation illustrates how human systems and natural systems are inseparably entangled. The sector thrives on globalization and human mobility, but its byproducts alter the balance of the atmosphere, shaping climate patterns that affect all living beings [4]. A higher Nature Quotient would encourage societies to see air travel not merely as an economic service but as part of a broader planetary system where atmospheric stability is a shared asset [5]. Our pursuit of speed and connectivity collides with the atmosphere’s limits. Without bold innovations, stricter governance, and a cultural shift toward eco-surplus values, flying will keep us on a trajectory of continued warming long after engines go quiet on the runway.

References

[1] Aamaas B, et al. (2025). Continued global warming from aviation even under high-ambition mitigation scenarios. One Earth, 101451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101451

[2] UNFCCC. (2015). Paris Agreement. United Nations.

[3] ICAO. (2022). Report on the feasibility of a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) for international civil aviation CO2 emission reductions. ICAO Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection.

[4] Nguyen MH. (2024). How can satirical fables offer us a vision for sustainability? Visions for Sustainability, 23(11267), 323-328. https://doi.org/10.13135/2384-8677/11267 

[5] Vuong QH, Nguyen MH. (2025). On Nature Quotient. Pacific Conservation Biology, 31, PC25028. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC25028