2024: A Climate Alarm Bell at 1.5°C

Cu Cu Đen

26-03-2025 

“As time passes, news about the now hotter Earth buzzes through the bird village. Those kingfishers residing along the banks of the Red River often report drying riverbeds and skinny fish. As Kingfisher casts his gaze upon the events that have unfolded, he can’t help but feel a sense of unease creeping up within him.”

In “GHG Emissions”; Wild Wise Weird [1]

In 2024, Earth’s average surface temperature surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time—a symbolic and scientific milestone that grabbed global attention [1]. But does a single hot year mean we have failed to meet the Paris Agreement’s target?

Not quite. The Paris Agreement defines 1.5°C of warming as a 20-year average, not a one-off spike. This long-term measure is meant to smooth out natural fluctuations like El Niño and capture only human-driven climate change [2]. Still, the latest research suggests we should take 2024 very seriously.

According to a new study published in Nature Climate Change, historically, when Earth first experiences a year above a key warming threshold, it almost always falls within the 20-year period that averages that same level of warming. This pattern holds for past thresholds—like 0.8°C or 1.0°C—and now likely applies to 1.5°C too [1].

Using climate models and observational data, researchers found it is “virtually certain”—with around 99% probability—that unless we take immediate, drastic steps to cut emissions, Earth’s 1.5°C year in 2024 marks the beginning of a 20-year period of sustained warming at or above that level.

This does not mean we have crossed the point of no return. The study emphasizes that strong, near-term climate action could slow the warming trend and reduce the risk of dangerous long-term impacts. But the window for action is narrowing.

Rather than a cause for despair, 2024 should be seen as an unmistakable signal [3]. The impacts of a 1.5°C world are no longer theoretical—they are arriving. What we do next will define the future [4].

References

[1] Vuong QH. (2024). Wild Wise Weird. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BG2NNHY6/

[2] Bevacqua E, et al. (2025). A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. Nature Climate Change, 15, 262–265. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02246-9 

[3] IPCC. (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report Climate Change 2023. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/ 

[4] Nguyen MH. (2024). How can satirical fables offer us a vision for sustainability? Visions for Sustainability. https://ojs.unito.it/index.php/visions/article/view/11267